A Light First-Round Preview

Rejoice! The Playoffs are finally here! Now, like most basketball fans, I quite enjoy the NBA Playoffs. In fact, they mark my favorite sporting “segment” of the year. This year looks to be the most open Playoff picture in recent years, so let’s kick it off by previewing the first round. Just as a disclaimer: I’m not an expert on every team/series I’m previewing; if you want tip-top analysis, go listen to the Dunker Spot. Instead, I’m here to get my brief thoughts out on each series, and also to pencil in some predictions for me to look back on and enjoy when the first round is over. With that being said, let’s jump in!

76ers (1) vs Wizards (8)

My time is precious, and so is yours. Beal or Russ may go off one game, but other than that, this is David v Goliath.

Verdict: Sixers in 5

Nets (2) vs Celtics (7)

Unfortunately, injuries to the Celtics (most notably Jaylen Brown) have likely robbed us of what could have been a good series. The Celtics (Kemba!) looked good in the play-in, but Tatum isn’t going for 50 every night. The Nets have certainly had some health issues all year, and while I think that their 3 stars are uniquely suited to plug-and-play with each other, the Nets may still want to work out some kinks/experiment a bit. This is a warm-up series.

Verdict: Nets in 5

Bucks (3) vs Heat (6)

This same matchup went famously awry in last year’s Playoffs, the second-straight post-season disappointment for the Bucks. However, this year is different. Beyond the addition of Jrue Holiday, who presents a major upgrade over Bledsoe in critical areas, coach Bud has taken off his tactical straightjacket, trying out different defensive schemes (other than drop) over the course of the regular season. Offensively, the Bucks have gone from 5-out to 4-out-1-in, started to recognize that Giannis is a big in the half-court, and are now beginning to use him accordingly. The addition of PJ Tucker is key, as it gives Milwaukee some much-needed defensive flexibility. Essentially, both Lopez and Tucker will likely spend their time chilling in the corner/dunker spot while getting ignored by the defense, making them more or less interchangeable on offense. Defensively, however, Tucker (who has a lot of experience as a small-ball 5) gives the Bucks a center who can switch, play up to the level of the screen, and generally just move, something that Brook can’t really do outside of the paint. Giannis is also showing a bit more stuff in the half-court, and we’ll see if that carries over. So no, this year’s matchup won’t feature death by a million pull-up 3’s, nor will it feature Eric Bledsoe driving into brick walls. Miami’s had an up-and-down season, and their offense lacks some of last year’s potency. I still expect them to put up a fight, but the Bucks are simply the better team, and this year, they’ll play like it too.

Verdict: Bucks in 6

Knicks (4) vs Hawks (5)

This looks to be the most fun first-round series in the Least (unless the Heat surprise me; it’s between these two, anyway). The Knicks surprised everyone this year, while the Hawks disappointed until Nate McMillan took over and completely turned them around. The Knicks are a great defensive team and the Hawks are a very good offensive one, making for a nice contrast. However, a small part of the Knicks’ defensive dominance was built on (partially) unsustainable opponent 3-pt shooting, and I highly doubt that low-ish number will keep up against the Hawks, a very good (and diverse!) shooting team. I’m a huge fan of what Nate McMillan’s done with Atlanta, so I’m going to conveniently ignore the Hawks’ regular-season matchups with the Knicks, and rather focus on how the McMillan-Hawks match up against the Knicks. On the other side of the ball, I’m actually not that worried about how Trae’s first series will go defensively. He’ll no doubt be targeted, but, surrounded with a plethora of large, interchangeable wings, and Capela anchoring the paint, I think that his defensive involvement will stay within reason. On top of that, the Knicks don’t have that much offensive firepower to both a. get a lot out of Young mismatches and b. take advantage of the Hawks doubling and then subsequently flying into rotation. I’ve seen way more pro-Knick takes than I’ve expected, which may stop me from going bold and instead reserve me to predict a 7-game. Actually, screw it (yes, I am finalizing my pick as I write this).

Verdict: Hawks in 6

Jazz (1) vs Warriors (8)

Yes, I just wrote off Memphis - deal with it. While I’ve heard the case for the Warriors, and they have, admittedly, been better since Wiseman went out, the Jazz are just a much better team, even with Mitchell’s health in question. The Warriors have looked good though, so I won’t write them off completely.

Verdict: Jazz in 6

Suns (2) vs Lakers (7)

I really feel for the Suns. They’ve had a fantastic season and have been a joy to watch. And if it sounds like I’m writing their euology; unfortunately, I am. The Lakers are still regrouping and getting healthy, though, which throws some variables into the mix. I honestly don’t have that much to say here; it’ll be an incredibly fun series, and I can’t wait to watch it.

Verdict: Lakers in 7

Nuggets (3) vs Trail Blazers (6)

The Jamal Murray injury robbed us of what would have been, by my count, our 8th contender. Oh well. The Nuggets have still been very good without him, super-powered by offensive super-nova Nikola Jokic. And I still can’t get a read on who the Blazers really are.

Verdict: Nuggets in 7 (and Terry Scotts gets fired)

Clippers (4) vs Mavericks (5)

We’ve (more or less) seen this one before. These Clippers are better than last year’s squad (not to mention better-coached) and, on the other hand, these Mavs are worse than last year’s squad. Expect a hard-fought series that’ll be closer than the final series score.

Verdict: Clippers in 5

Finally wrapped these up; I can’t wait so see how I was wrong in a couple of weeks. Anyway, time to enjoy the playoffs!