2020-21 NBA Season Preview
The NBA is back (again)! Personally, this past season was my favorite one since 2016, when a certain Free Agent Signing That Shall Not Be Named more or less killed competition for a few years. So, as you can imagine, I was absolutely thrilled when the 2019 off-season restored balance to the NBA universe; the 2019-20 season was awesome, and 2020-21 looks to dial that up to 1000. Also, the level of talent building up around the league is absolutely nutty; almost every team can give me a reason to watch, night-in and night-out.
So, what can you expect? I’m going to power rank tier (read: team strength, not projected regular season finish) each conference by season outlook, starting with bite-sized state-of-the-union addresses before quickly grading off-seasons and highlighting what to watch for at each stop. Then, I’m going to give my award predictions (what I think will happen given how the voters generally vote), going 5-deep for each one. Let’s Go!
The (L)east(ern) Conference
While the East is much stronger, particularly at the top, than it was a short while ago, a nasty, nasty drop-off point still exists.
Tier 6 - Cade Cunningham Hopefuls
This tier is composed of the teams that currently occupy the NBA’s gutter, who all in part owe their woes to organizational ineptitude. They’re all going to suck this year.
New York Knicks
SOTU (State Of The Union): The Knicks have been bad for a long time, and that’s not going to change anytime soon. The roster is full to the brim of ill-fitting pieces and ‘young guys’ who don’t seem to be going anywhere (except maybe overseas). Expect a quiet season, optimistically a reflection of a more patient FO.
Off-Season Grade: I’ll Take It - The Knicks have had some pretty bad off-seasons as of late, a steady dose of eyebrow-raising contracts and transactions, so on the merit of not doing something stupid alone, this off-season was an arguable step in the right direction. As a fun side-mission, they essentially assembling the All-CAA First Team in the process. I wasn’t a fan of the Thibs hiring, nor the Toppin pick (should have been Hali), but they added (some) shooting and held on to their cap space. I’ll take it.
Player(s) To Watch: RJ Barrett, Mitchell Robinson, and Obi Toppin, their two best young guys and a high-flyer. Also, tune-in if you want to crack a joke about Thibs being a bit antiquated.
Cleveland Cavaliers
SOTU: Kevin Love is the last remaining player from the 2016 championship squad, but beyond the same power forward and name, those Cavs are a distant memory. Cleveland is now rebuilding, doing so with a debatable level of success. They inexplicably took on Drummond, which did nothing to alter the fact that Cleveland doesn’t really have a long-term core, exactly why they find themselves here today.
Off-Season Grade: Good - Not much to say here. I liked the Okoro pick due to the combination of his high-floor and the fact that Okoro fills the defensive black hole created by the Cavs’ pair of young guards. That just about recaps Cleveland’s notable off-season move. It was good.
Player(s) To Watch: At this point in Cleveland’s rebuild, what is of utmost importance is evaluating what you have, seeing who the keepers are, and then capitalizing on that knowledge. Is Sexton merely a spark-plug or is there another level to him? What does a contributing Darius Garland look like? What do they have in KPJ and Okoro? These may not be the most interesting questions around the league, but it’s the best Cleveland can offer. (Bonus: does Love play him back into the trade market?)
Detroit Pistons
SOTU: After trying their hand at being competitive, a Blake Griffin-less year allowed reality to set in on Detroit. New, decisive leadership means that they’re just beginning their rebuild, a dark place for any franchise to be in.
Off-Season Grade: “Great pick… Decent Trade… Interesting Signing… WTF?!” - The Pistons had a wild off-season that has left many scratching their heads. You can try to read the tea leaves here, but I’ll do a quick rundown of the notable moves. Bruce Brown trade - maybe get a little bit more, but I’ll take the 2nd. Draft Night - Hayes was a great pick, Stewart was a bit of a reach, and Bey was solid, somewhere in the middle. I felt like they shipped off Kennard for 90 cents on the dollar, but oh well. Signing Josh Jackson is a nice high-upside move, and I still can’t comprehend why they waived Zhaire Smith, alongside all the other waive-and-stretches they executed. Now, to the big deals. The Plumlee contract made no sense at the time, and still doesn’t now. The Jerami Grant signing was also very odd, as Grant took turned down the exact same offer from Denver in pursuit of a larger offensive role; which is fine, except that, umm, that’s not exactly Grant’s game. Equally puzzling is that we have to assume Detroit offered him an expanded offensive role in the first place; Blake Griffin is still there, right? Ok, so the Pistons had a confusing, non-ideal off-season. They’re not the first to have one of those, and most definitely will not be the last.
Player(s) To Watch: Killian Hayes. If nothing else, he at least has a wide variety of P&R partners to choose from. On top of the other rookies, you’ll want to see if Josh Jackson can still live up to some semblance of his pre-draft hype. Maybe Blake Griffin and/or Derrick Rose can play their way into trade talks. Also, see if you can get a refund on the LiAngelo Ball jersey you just ordered.
Tier 5 - At Least They’re Trying
This tier is composed of teams who probably won’t be great, but more often than not resemble a real basketball team, and all have an outside shot at the 8th seed
Charlotte Hornets
SOTU: Charlotte wasn’t supposed to be here. Last season’s team well outperformed their net rating, which points to a regression to the mean this time around. I really wasn’t sure that they had any long-term keepers on the roster, but it seems that help is on the way, and the two put together have convinced me to give Charlotte the benefit of the doubt. However, injuries to an oft-injured player and a rough NBA transition for LaMelo could drop this team back into the East’s gutter.
Off-Season Grade: Love-Hate - Charlotte, like many teams so far, had both positive and negative aspects to their off-season. Their best and most important move was nabbing LaMelo Ball, the best prospect 2020 had to offer, at no. 3, all but certainly giving them their first legit franchise building block. They followed up on their good fortune by signing the injury-diminished, 30-year-old Gordon Hayward to a 4-yr/$120M deal, waiving and stretching Nicolas Batum’s final $27M year to make space. They managed to squander two assets in one move, losing both their cap space and a $27M expiring deal during a financial step backward for the league. While I didn’t like this pair of moves, it’s undeniable that Hayward makes them a better basketball team, and eases some of the load off their rookie point guard.
Player(s) To Watch: LaMelo Ball, duh. Not only is he likely the franchise’s future, but his feel for the game combined with his natural flair make him a joy to watch. Other than that, look for growth from the Hornets’ collection of young players (Miles Bridges, Malik Monk, Devonte’ Graham, Terry Rozier, and especially PJ Washington, who seems to be ahead of schedule, as 12th overall picks go). So basically, a large chunk of the rotation, while not the NBA’s brightest young core, should all on the rise this year.
Chicago Bulls
SOTU: This past off-season saw Chicago break free from the self-imposed shackles of the Gar-Pax era, wiping the front office clean, including pulling the trigger on the long-overdue firing of Jim Boylen, bringing in a steady, experienced hand for a change (Karni). Chicago has some intriguing young pieces, but they’ve been almost impossible to evaluate due to Boylen’s ridiculous mismanagement of the roster, often preventing players from doing what they were brought in to do. Which is why I would count myself cautiously optimistic of the Bulls this season, as a team both growing and finding its identity.
Off-Season Grade: Trust in Arturas Karnisovas (I do) - While it’s hard to resist slapping letter grades on moves just after they happen, al a an assembly line, I’ll take the Bulls’ quiet, more conservative off-season as (hopefully) an indication of a larger plan. Let’s keep it short - the Bulls needed a playmaker on their roster, and neither Coby White nor Zach Lavine are great at creating for others. The Williams pick caught me off-guard (I thought should have gone with Hayes, and it was also a bit of a reach), as it anointed Coby White as the point guard of the future, but so far, Williams has looked fantastic; good pick. And speaking of White, he may be showing some signs of advanced vision; I guess it’s fine to bet on internal development every now and again. The Bulls’ other notable moves were their handling of pending free agents - keeping Denzel Valentine, who found himself falling out of Boylen’s rotation, while letting both of their defensive-minded guards (Dunn and Harrison) go. I guess this is just them putting their trust in Coby White, which I’m not opposed to. Also, I wasn’t smitten with the hire of Billy Donovan, as I don’t think he’ll be coaching the best version of these Bulls, but after years of chaos, a proven NBA head coach was the right choice. All in all, especially with how Williams is turning out, I’m definitely warming up to their off-season.
Player(s) To Watch: Short answer, everyone. The Bulls have fun young players who were previously under the reign of a not-so-fun head coach. Watch out for a fully unleashed WCJ, who can now do what he was drafted for. None of the other Bulls are 100% set in stone as franchises cornerstones, so see who can make a leap, with your microscope trained on Lauri, who’s running out of time to prove that he’s good enough offensively to make up for his poor defense and lack of mobility; he’s entering the final year of his deal. As mentioned before, see if White can grow into the lead ball-handler role. If everything goes well, the Bulls might find themselves challenging for the 8th seed, but it’s too hard for me to make that assumption right now.
Orlando Magic
SOTU: No team has been as ho-hum as this iteration of the Magic. They’ve spent their last two seasons as the red carpet of the Eastern Conference Playoffs, getting trod by stars to as the show opens. They’re full of rotation vets, mildly intriguing prospects, and a pretty good, Eastern Conference All-Star in Vucevic. They’re going into the season sans their most intriguing young piece (and arguably one of their best players), Jonathan Isaac, so between Isaac’s absence, a deeper Eastern Conference, and the 2021 draft class, this season looks to be a much-needed down year for Orlando, and should help them determine a new direction.
Off-Season Grade: Good - Orlando had a quiet off-season, essentially replacing DJ Augustin with 15th overall pick Cole Anthony, a top HS prospect who’s stock dropped in college, due in part to circumstances beyond his control, making him a good high-upside bet. Nice :).
Player(s) To Watch: While the Magic aren’t exactly a lovable league-pass team, they do have some guys with room to grow. Mo Bamba’s size + length + shooting means that at the very least, he will always be “2 years away”. Fultz got to show he belonged last year (although that should never have been in question, given the breadth of non-shooting tools he displayed in college), but his ceiling as a player seems to be tied to the height of his release point. Still, see what he can do. Cole Anthony’s impressive preseason seems to confirm that UNC’s awful roster played a large part in his play last year, moving him into ROY sleeper territory.
Tier 4 - All-In For the 8th Seed
This tier is composed of teams who seem to be going all-in on the 8th. God bless their souls.
Atlanta Hawks
SOTU: Trae Young is an (offensive) superstar. The Hawks are full of young talent, and until very recently, cap space. Last year’s team lacked a chunk of replacement-level minutes, and hence were pretty bad. However, the Hawks’ biggest storyline was their off-season, so let’s get into that.
Off-Season Grade: Curb Your Enthusiasm - The Hawks had a lot of quality signings (except for Rondo) independent of one another, which no one can really dispute. However, they weren’t supposed to get all of those guys. It’s as if the front office split up, each group making their own moves, and then reunited at the end, only to realize that they treaded on each other’s toes. Atlanta ate up too much cap flexibility too quickly, resulting in an awkward log-jam that will almost certainly be less than the sum of its parts. Competition/Commitment is good, so I won’t mention the upside for sucking this season, but I doubt Atlanta will find the right balance between vets (who you just paid) and young guys that need to develop, specifically their trio of young wings. Either way, Lloyd Pierce will be juggling chainsaws this season as it pertains to the rotation. Good luck. I didn’t even get to their rookie, Onyeka Okongwu, who at the moment brings a package similar to that of Capela. I like the pick, but it probably means that Capela won’t be around long-term, and that JC will for the most part be a 4. Oh, and as a parting thought: don’t expect Gallo to stay around too long. He clogs up most of the rotation, and is the farthest from the rest of the group, timeline-wise. Why bother signing him? Well, he’ll help out in the short term, and the teams previously eyeing the 2021 off-season may be looking for a consolation prize.
Player(s) To Watch: The Hawks. All of them. If nothing else, Atlanta is a tier-1 league-pass team. Trae is fun as hell to watch, and finally armed with competent offensive pieces, should be putting on a serious show night in and night out. Everyone will be fighting for playing time, but if I had to choose one guy to focus on, it’s Cam Reddish, who has legit two-way potential, and whose defense is good enough to earn the minutes needed to develop.
Washington Wizards
SOTU: While in the same tier as the Hawks, Washington’s means of improving are nowhere close to Atlanta’s. They are essentially stuck as an 8th seed hopeful until they move on from Beal. However, fast pace, a spread floor, and Russell Westbrook does indeed make for a nice viewing experience, and should get them in the mix for the Eastern Conference’s red carpet, right?
Off-Season Grade: Good - Deni Avdija was arguably a steal at no. 9, and Wall was replaced with Russ, who being the better floor raiser should improve the Wizards, given their tempered expectations. Robin Lopez seemed to have appeared out of nowhere (I seriously didn’t know he was on the Wizards until midway through preseason), but I guess he’ll help shore up the second unit’s defense.
Player(s) To Watch: If you want to see a lot of scoring, turn on a Wizards game. It’ll come pouring in from both sides.
Tier 3 - The Playoff Lock
This tier is composed of a single team that will be competitive every night, ending their respectable season in the first round of the playoffs due to a lack of upside.
Indiana Pacers
SOTU: Indiana has just been “there” for a long time, coming off of 5 consecutive first-round losses. As with many small-market franchises, they’re forced to work on the margins, although Indiana has found a lot of success this way, and is ultimately one Giannis-at-15 lucky break (aren’t we all?) away from making some noise. They had their fair share of injury issues last season, excluding Oladipo being out. Speaking of which, Victor Oladipo should look to make a positive impact again, as he’s probably far enough removed from his injury to regain some of the athleticism that helped him break out. Indiana also brings back TJ Warren, fresh off his bubble supernova.
Off-Season Grade: ______ - They drafted Cassius Stanley late in the second round. Maybe he works out, maybe he doesn’t. Nate McMillan was replaced by a more modern coach in Nate Bjorkgren, but for all of McMillan’s weaknesses, I’m not sure that what he was able to do in Indiana, each and every season, was fully appreciated while it lasted. Either way, it’s hard to pass judgment on a first-time head coach before we’ve seen them in action. Next.
Player(s) To Watch: Indiana doesn’t possess a one-man show, or even a two-man show, for that matter. They’re a very egalitarian team, if you’re into that sort of stuff.
Tier 2 - Contenders (If It All Goes Right)
This tier is composed of teams who, well, I think the title explains it. By the end of the regular season, we may be able to split this tier up into two parts, but as of now, there isn’t much to really set them apart. Also, I’m gonna change the format: I’m combing the SOTU with the off-season review, and will end each preview by detailing what must go right for a championship.
Tampa Bay Raptors
SOTU: The Raptors shattered perhaps every single expectation set for them last season, and rode a suffocating, amoebic defense to the second seed and a hard-fought, 7-game exit in the second round (that was almost over before it began). They downgraded their center rotation in a big way, and the biggest “addition” (rather than replacement) is Malachi Flynn, who flashed some potential during preseason that can’t be ignored, simply because I trust in Masai and co.
Case For The Case (that’s a nickname for the trophy, right?): What’s holding Tampa back hasn’t changed from last season, and that’s enough high-level creation, or a ‘primary option’. They rode the second-best transition offense to an average ORTG, and the lack of creation showed in their 7-game showdown against Boston. They’ll get away with it in the regular season, and therefore should still be a top seed, but sans a jump from Siakam or even OG as creators, the Raptors still face a hard playoff ceiling.
Miami Heat
SOTU: Despite a surprise bubble run to the Finals, Miami still hasn’t set itself apart from the pack. They structured their off-season around the promise of a 2021 Giannis signing, and now that that book is closed, it’s time to shift their focus elsewhere. They essentially replaced Jae Crowder with Mo Harkless and Avery Bradley, neither of which bring the same big body that Crowder did defensively. However, both slide into the same role. I wouldn’t say they replaced DJJ, cause he didn’t play in the postseason anyway, but they still lose his upside; rookie Precious Achiuwa fills the same position, more or less.
Case For The Case: I just want to remind anyone, that while performing better than expected, Miami still experienced their fair share of luck in the Playoffs. Milwaukee was a great stylistic matchup, and Miami was outscored by Boston in 6 games. Rather than predict excessive, given that the hiatus was far longer than this year’s off-season, I’d expect Tyler Herro to look more bubble than pre-bubble, which is already a nice upgrade. Bam has multiple ways to branch out, but I’d keep an eye on his shooting range, specifically. Growth from those two is Miami’s easiest means of improvement, and hence also for finding themselves back in the Finals, assuming the rest of their equation stays constant (perhaps their unexpected success actually came from the consumption of Big Face Coffee, and this is all a distraction).
Philadelphia 76ers
SOTU: Many good basketball minds (and me) were tricked into buying the 19-20 Sixers as contenders, and you know how that story went, although I have yet to see a proper explanation for their ridiculous home/road splits. Anyway, change took place. Philly was able to nab Daryl Morey, who within a week or so completely re-tooled the roster around what they needed. They may have downgraded ever-so-slightly in the talent department, but the new Sixers roster, headed by Doc Rivers (you’ll see what I think about him a bit later), should be significantly better as a whole than last year’s squad. I loved the Curry-Richardson swap, as Philly finally finds an elite sniper who should approximately replace the dynamic the JJ Redick added just one season ago, via Embiid DHOs and beyond. The Horford-Green swap made sense as well, dumping Horford’s contract for a relatively low price, getting back the (somewhat diminished) Platonic 3&D player. Tyrese Maxey was an absolute steal, and may become their best perimeter creator at some point throughout the season. Oh, and they finally have legit guys backing up Embiid (the Isaiah Joe pick was also solid, but he probably won’t play this year, so he doesn’t factor into a season preview). A true A+ off-season.
Case For The Case: For all of the fit questions surrounding Embiid and Simmons, the one constant throughout is that Embiid + Simmons + shooting lineups have always been elite. Philly has surrounded the duo with shooting, and is now ready to test the limits of this theory. They could really make the leap if Ben Simmons starts sho— no, that ship has sailed. If Embiid can be his best self, the roster can stay healthy, and the Sixers’ grab bag of perimeter players can make up a respectable rotation, then the 76ers have a seriously high ceiling, which I think they’ll be closer to hitting than not this coming season.
Brooklyn Nets
SOTU: KD and Kyrie. Steve Nash was chosen to head Brooklyn and their championship aspirations, but I feel a bit better about the first time head-coach when you look at the staff he’s assembled. Bruce Brown, Landry Shamet, and Jeff Green were all good additions. There isn’t much else basketball-wise to say about this team, so let’s make the case.
Case For The Case: Truth be told, I’m not very high on the Nets. From their star duo to the second unit, there’s A LOT of redundancy and overlapping skillsets, leading to a pretty significant lack of, uh, defense, especially on the perimeter. And while I don’t want to sound like that side of the media, I definitely have some questions about the Nets’ potential chemistry, which (if they spring up) should not be brushed aside, given how we just saw the Clippers collapse. So basically, the question is: does Brooklyn built an awesome offense, more than the sum of its parts and good enough to keep pace with anyone, or do their defensive deficiencies and questionable fits render them a second-round exit (or even first, if the matchups work out a certain way)?
Boston Celtics
SOTU: If Boston came back with the exact same roster as 2019-20, I’d probably have them as the Eastern Conference favorites. However, they unquestionably got worse this off-season, letting Hayward go for nothing and fumbling away the draft, despite owning multiple first-round picks. Losing Hayward is a double-whammy. Not only do they lose the player, but they lose the versatile line-ups that Hayward could take part in. The other side effect is that, given Kemba’s knee issues, Jaylen Brown is now the acting second-option (and eventually the third), which is not good. He excelled in an off-ball role last year, as it played to his strengths and allowed him to add a lot of value as a dynamic play-finisher, but now will be asked to play to his weaknesses (on-ball creation and such). TT was a solid pick-up, but not a particularly impactful addition, as it didn’t address any real holes. How good is Jeff Teague, at this point in his career? Perhaps he and Pritchard were enough to shore up the guard rotation, but I’m not too convinced.
Case For The Case: Once (if?) Kemba gets back to 100%, some of my JB concerns will be eased. Tatum is already incredible and still has room to grow. Maybe one of the Celtics’ young guys hits this year. Marcus Smart is still an All-NBA pest. However, the only force that can truly counter the roster downgrades will be a(nother) leap from Tatum (I really buy his ceiling after his recent improvement as a passer). Or, Jaylen Brown revolutionizes his on-ball game (not likely, but I thought that I may as well dismiss the idea publicly in case it actually happens, just to show that I did indeed entertain the thought, albeit for a brief period). However, Boston seemed fine without Hayward for the majority of the Playoffs, so maybe improvement from the non-Hayward part of the roster will be enough to push them into the Finals.
Tier 1 - The Bucks
Honestly, the Bucks are much closer to the rest of the Tier 2 teams come playoff time, but they’re simply so dominant (in the regular season) that I just can’t put them with everyone else.
Milwaukee Bucks
SOTU: Giannis signed the supermax, making this off-season an automatic success. It gets very, very ugly for the Bucks down the line, but turn a blind eye on their long-term future, and rather look at the present. They overpaid for Jrue Holiday, but still upgraded from a pure basketball perspective, as Jrue is a functional shooter where Bledsoe was not, and has some half-court creation in him. Discourse around the Bogi trade has seen the light of day x2, but since it fell though, there’s nothing to see here. The Bucks also gutted their depth, making them a slightly worse regular season team, but it was probably a post-season upgrade, as now Bud will literally be forced to play his starters like actual starters come playoff time. Otherwise, Milwaukee is all out of ammo, so it’s really just time to see how they look on the court.
Case For The Case: Jrue is an (obvious) upgrade over Bledsoe, but the difference between someone you close out on (Jrue) vs someone who you let shoot (Bledsoe) should become more apparent come playoff time. Other than that, there isn’t much to say. Reigning 2x MVP and DPOY Giannis Antetokounmpo will probably be better than last year, the playoff rotation will be tighter, there’s a little more star power, and the team has been really good in the regular season. Buy it, or don’t.
The Western Conference
Tier 5 - Better Luck Next Year
In the insanely talented Western Conference, even its worst teams have an outside shot at reaching the newly-implemented play-in. However, because the Western Conference is insanely talented someone has to come in last, and someone second-to-last, and so on. You get the point. The teams in Tier 5 are just far away from a play-in berth, and hence get their own tier.
Oklahoma City Thunder
SOTU: The Thunder have pivoted to rebuilding and more of a long-term approach. They suck now, but will probably begin to run the league in several years time.
Off-Season Grade: Everything Must Go! - OKC stripped their roster to its core, trading anything that could net them some sort of positive return. They ended up with even more picks to add to their stash from the 2019 off-season. They know what direction they’re going in, and with Presti behind the wheel, are acting accordingly, a massive positive in its own right. They mutually parted ways with Billy Donovan (this one I can believe), and promoted some organizational guy to the position of head coach.
Player(s) To Watch: Trying to ship out every meaningful veteran means that you’re left without, well, meaningful veterans, opening up a lot of minutes. SGA is going to get his first crack at the primary ball-handler role (more on how that could go in due time), which alone should be good fun. Throw in Maledon, who looked great in the preseason, alongside the ultra-raw pair of Bazley and Poku (I really hope Poku gets minutes), and you get a truly lovable loser.
San Antonio Spurs
SOTU: After an all-time stretch of greatness, the Spurs are headed for a rebuild, whether they acknowledge it or not. The team does have some young-ish players, but nothing too special. Like it or not, it’s time to tank (and luckily enough, the Spurs are going to get a lot of ping pong balls this year, and there’s not much they can do about it).
Off-Season Grade: Ok - Drafting Devin Vassell is good, holding onto potentially movable contracts is not.
Player(s) To Watch: Out of respect for both your time and mine too, I’m not going pretend like the Spurs should be at the top of your watch list. They shouldn’t. Go watch someone like Trae Young instead, who’s pretty much the Anti-Spur, if such a thing could exist.
Sacramento Kings
SOTU: Following an encouraging 18/19 campaign, the Kings followed up with a disappointing, injury-riddled season. The other blow to their rising hopes was that two franchise-changing talents, Ja and Zion, both got drafted by Western Conference teams.
Off-Season Grade: Ok+ - I liked some parts, and disliked others. Letting Bogi go and getting nothing in return was a big L. Even if it upsets someone (like maybe Buddy), you can risk upsetting him while you find a trade partner for Bogdanovic. Getting Haliburton at #12 was a great pick. It’s amazing that they were able to get GR3, as the rest of the league seemingly forgot about him. Signing Hassan Whiteside was a move akin to, well, signing Hassan Whiteside, although he can’t do too much damage on a minimum, and may actually help, although more notable is that he’ll eat up some of Bagley’s minutes at the 5.
Player(s) To Watch: First and foremost, De’Aaron Fox, the borderline-All-Star speed demon. Then remember that it’s basically Marvin Bagley’s sophomore year, and yes, he has lots of room to grow. Maybe they’ll rediscover the fast pace that made them so intriguing in 2018-19, that would be nice.
Tier 4 - Play-In Contenders
This tier is unusually fun, and yes, these teams would all be a bit better in the East. I may start to tinker with the preview formula, as special teams require special treatment.
Minnesota Timberwolves
SOTU: The Minnesota Timberwolves finally just got their young core in order, or pre-maturely sealed their fate, depending on who you may ask. They have KAT and D’Lo locked up for years to come, so love it or hate it, that’s their duo of the future. One thing to like here is the deep bag of young wings (Culver, Okogie, Edwards, McDaniels, and Beasley, even though he just signed his second contract), and getting one or two two-way hits out of that group will be huge. Ricky Rubio is also back to help move that ball around. However, with their aforementioned duo in place, their defense will be severely challenged. And with their top 3 protected 2021 pick otherwise in the hands of Golden State, any growth will have to come from within (and don’t look now, but Minny is actually set up well to trade for a star, if they’re willing to give up D’Lo for salary-matching purposes). Given KAT’s incredible shooting, I don’t think it’s out of the question for Minnesota to look for a rim-runner who can do rim-runner things (protect the rim on one end and pressure it on the other) to pair with Towns.
The Case For An 8th Seed Run: Offense, offense, offense. They have solid helpings of ball-handling and shooting, so if their offense clicks, it can be really good, potentially vaulting them into serious play-in territory. However, between their likely atrocious defense and wing rotation exclusively composed of one-way wings, I wouldn’t count on it. However, they should be pretty fun to watch, so there is that.
Memphis Grizzlies
SOTU: Not to sound like an alarmist here, but it’s looking more and more likely that the organization is run by a cabal of self-appointed draft analysts who call themselves “draft twitter” (just for clarification, I’m joking around here, draft twitter is awesome), swiping a lot of their favorite prospects (Tillie, Tillman, and Bane this year alone, who not to mention were all great value for their spots). The FO has been stellar lately, constantly making plus decisions. They were arguably a draft-night winner despite owning no first-round picks (and also despite the fact that declaring draft-night winners on draft-night is pretty stupid).
2020-21 Expectations: The Grizzlies have Ja Morant, and hence should already be penciled into your viewing schedule. On top of Ja’s year 2 leap, the team is full of young guys that all have room to grow this season. The number 2 guy I’d watch out for is Justice Winslow, who has an intriguing Swiss-Army knife skillset despite struggling to stay on the floor as of late. With JJJ starting the season injured, the West’s depth may make the play-in spots and uphill climb for Ja
New Orleans Pelicans
SOTU: They literally have Zion, and Brandon Ingram surprised us all by becoming an All-Star. Jrue Holiday netted a monster return. Things are looking good for New Orleans.
Off-Season Review: This meme I made right below kind of summarizes my thoughts on the off-season. I think I’m going to start incorporating memes into my analysis as much as possible from here on out.
As you might be able to tell, I did not, and still do not, like the Adams trade. Moving on, I like the SVG hire, and the overall clean-ish house that should give the young guys plenty of room to audition.
2020-21 Projection: The Pelicans are definitely one of the most fun teams to watch (I probably say this too much, to the point where it loses its gravitas, but hey, I like basketball). Zion is a generational player, period. Even if you aren’t inclined to watch the Pelicans, Adam Silver has been asking very nicely for us to all tune-in to New Orleans, so let’s give the nice man what he wants. As to how good they’ll actually be, well, we’ll see. Zion is really good, but we have to ask if he’ll be deployed like a normal player this year, or if New Orleans hasn’t taken off his training wheels yet, nevermind the question of whether he’s in proper shape or not (and he might still load manage anyway). Whatever happens, Zion’s health will surely swing the trajectory of their season. Also, check-in on the AD trade trio: if Lonzo does anything to amplify his scoring threat (and hence further weaponize his vision), hows BI looks next to Zion, and what other skills he’s built, and if Josh Hart will be worth an extension. One of: improvements from those three, rookie/sophomore impacts, and how this awkward roster fits together (Bledsoe isn’t exactly a knockdown shooter, either) will be the secondary cause for NO’s success next season, or lack thereof.
Golden State Warriors
SOTU: I feel so bad for Klay. Otherwise, I’m really not too high on Golden State this year at all. Curry will do his thing and Draymond will be somewhat useful on offense (on top of his now-massive defensive load). The team lacks any reputable creation behind Curry, and will struggle against the star wings who seem to rule the league nowadays. I never thought I’d say this about a team with Curry, but the shooting/spacing is really suspect (outside of Curry, of course). How many guys from the Oubre-Wiggins-Draymond-Wiseman pool demand closeouts?
2020-21 Projection: Given the timing of the Klay injury and the position it puts them in, I can’t exactly grade GSW’s off-season, because they know they’re going nowhere this season (although I do respect the Oubre tried, as it shows they’re still trying). You are allowed to watch this team, but only when Curry’s on the floor, for your own health and safety.
Tier 3 - The Rest Of The Playoff Picture
I brainstormed my tiers from the top down, but am presenting them from the bottom up, in case the title has you a little lost. These are teams that will be great in the regular season (the middle-of-the-pack Western conference teams will be almost indistinguishable record-wise, so it’s frivolous to focus on the exact finishes that’ll probably come down to some dumb luck here and there; instead, I’m looking at playoff upside), but fall short when looking at who could realistically make a conference finals run. They are still very good though. From here on out, we’re mixing all the categories into one big one, called “The Schpiel”.
Houston Rockets
The Schpiel: Harden is a ticking time-bomb, but he doesn’t have too many realistic suitors, so the fact that a deal hasn’t been done yet either means that teams are waiting for his price to go down, or someone isn’t comfortable pulling the trigger. Russ had to go, and I think Wall will add more value next to Harden than Russ did (Wall can actually hit a C&S 3). The Rockets want to look committed re-tooling around Harden, but essentially dumped RoCo, a fantastic player, for cap space (Fertitta’s miserly ways/ownership style as a whole is/are going to be a long-term issue for Houston) while in the same week signing Christian Wood, a dynamic role man the likes of which Harden has never gotten to play with, to a value contract. Maybe Silas has some tricks up his sleeve when it comes to making this all work, as there are definitely some wonky things to try out. They also signed Boogie, and while they didn’t pair up in the way we might have imagined it, I’m nevertheless thrilled for Cousins and Wall to finally be together. The team’s depth still sucks, and their defense will take a massive hit after offloading RoCo. Whether it’s sooner or later, things are going to get ugly in Houston, but Harden is a guaranteed playoff berth while he’s still around.
Phoenix Suns
The Schpiel: I’ve already detailed my thoughts on the Chris Paul trade elsewhere, but what I'll mention here is that he’s already made the Suns a legit franchise; Jae Crowder wasn’t coming otherwise. Now to the basketball stuff. Paul should help with basically everyone’s development, specifically Ayton. I don’t think it’s a reach to have the Suns here, as long as you consider the non-CP3 Suns to be better than the non-CP3 19-20 Thunder. Devin Booker should finally get the recognition that he deserves, too. It was probably necessary to keep him happy and show commitment, but seeing so many teams trying to be competitive after the Warriors’ dominant rule is great for the league. Phoenix will be good fun, with a pair of breakout candidates to boot(Ayton and Bridges; unrelated, but I’m still not sure why they didn’t pick Haliburton at no. 10) what else is there to say? I’m truly excited to see what the fellas can do this year.
Utah Jazz
The Schpiel: Utah is a solid team, and could even win a playoff series via elite shooting, high-IQ players, and the Stifle Tower. They should be good in the regular season. However, because they’re a bit short on star power, I think that their regular-season success will significantly overstate their championship odds, more than perhaps any other team in the league. They’re not particularly asset-rich either, and indulged too many resources at the back-up center spot this off-season for my liking.
Tier 2 - 3rd Wheel Hopefuls
If the title doesn’t make any sense to you, then basically what I’m trying to say is that one of these three teams will grab a top-3 seed alongside the LA teams, and may emerge in a tier of their own, below the LA teams and above everyone else.
Dallas Mavericks
The Schpiel: Luka Doncic. He has Dallas in the best position any franchise could ask for, and the young superstar can still get much better. But onto the Mavericks. They identified and addressed a weakness this off-season, displaying refreshing level-headed GM-ing by drafting Josh Green and swapping for Curry for Richardson (and then drafting Curry’s replacement in Tyrell Terry). Their offense should take a hit, but Richardson should still have a much better offensive year now that he’s miscast as a primary ballhandler, easing the pain. However, my largest source of optimism for the Mavericks is that they had a measly 11.9% TOV% on defense last year, 2.5% below league average and good for last in the league. Simply getting that number into the league-average range, which a reasonable request given their new additions, would make them significantly better. How much better? Well, last week I published a massive piece on possessions, possession value, and those sorts of things, so click here to get a deeper understanding of how it could help out Luka and co. (Spoiler: a lot). Talking of improving from last year, the Mavs’ net-rating/W-L record disparities (aka offensive woes in the clutch), were no fluke, albeit certainly exaggerated, and should regress closer to the mean this year, whatever that mean may be. I’ll just assume that Porzingis will be healthy and ready to go come playoff time, cause it’s just not very fun to talk about injuries. If everything can come together, the Mavs will be dangerous this year.
Denver Nuggets
The Schpiel: There’s been a lot of Nuggets talk recently, so I’ll try to keep this one short. The team lost Miles Plumlee and Jerami Grant (though no fault of their own), and replaced the latter with JaMychal Green. They scooped up Campazzo from Europe and took RJ Hampton & Zeke Nnaji in the first round. Otherwise, look for internal growth from their still-very-young duo of Murray and Jokic, as well as a big year-two leap (or unleashing) from Porter (didn’t want to refer to them as a big 3, so spare my odd sentence structure). Front-court losses alongside Murray’s shooting coming back down to earth put these Nuggets firmly below the Tier 1 teams, but I’ve learned my lesson and will not count them out this year. Oh, and if Murray’s shooting regresses back to the mean, it would only be fair for Gary Harris’s shooting to do so as well. The Nuggets do, however, get Will Barton back, despite some current role misunderstandings. I’m kind of rambling at this point, but the bottom line is that the Nuggets are still really good, and while better than they were an (NBA) year ago, they still haven’t reached the premier tier of teams. Still, this is (yet another) fun team.
Portland Trail Blazers
The Schpiel: Count me in as a Portland believer this season. I loved literally every single move they made (RoCo trade, Hood re-signing, DJJ signing, Giles signing), as the FO went to lengths addressing the number need, wings of all shapes and sizes. Dame is at his peak, Nurkic looked better than ever in the bubble (same for Gary Trent), and now, with a plethora of length and defense alongside last year’s no. 3 offense, don’t be surprised if Portland grabs a top-2 seed as one of the Tier 1 teams take their foot off the gas.
Tier 1 - Los Angeles
No surprises here. In fact, if I tier the conferences together, the LA teams would still occupy a stratosphere of their own. Also, heads up: I’m a Clippers fan, and this section is going to get a little touchy.
Los Angeles Clippers
The Schpiel: I was among the many who had the Clippers as favorites last season, and they’ve only gotten better. Ty Lue for Doc, Kennard for Shamet, and Ibaka for Harrell are all significant upgrades. I am completely done with Doc after his blind-faith playing of Montrezl Harrell, overall lack of adjustments, and his rigid coaching philosophy, which included not giving young guys run in the regular season, not tinkering with lineups (specifically the Clippers’ small-ball potential), and failing to institute a system that encouraged more ball movement, allowing the Clips to play your-turn-my-turn basketball up until their demise. Kennard may not be the C&S shooter that Shamet is, but he can hit pull-up threes, run some P&R, and has better vision than you’re allowed to know about. Ibaka, being a floor-spacing rim-protector, two things that Montrezl Harrell is not, adds another dimension to the Clips by allowing them to play more 5-out, and as a nice bonus giving them a competent rim protector (alongside Zubac) whenever they want. And talking of Zubac - simply playing him more is an improvement in and of itself, as he was actually one of the league’s better rim protectors while stuffed in Doc’s Pandora’s Box. JaMychal Green was the one pure loss, but Nicolas Batum + new rotations can replace him. Also, expect more 3’s this year, as the Clippers were 15th in 3Pfreq% but 6th in 3P%.
Los Angeles Laker
The Schpiel: The defending champs got better. The King still reigns. The Lakers’ supporting cast impressed in the Playoffs (beyond any reasonable expectations, especially Rondo), and they only got better. Danny Green -> Wesley Mathews is a cost-effective downgrade, and was more than worth it given that they got Schroeder, who fills the otherwise massive gap at secondary ball-handler/ playmaker. He can hold his own on defense, pressure the rim OTD, and as of recent, even shoot, penciling him into the closing lineup. He will also, like almost every player ever, benefit from playing alongside LeBron. I’m also a huge fan of the Gasol signing, an absolute steal for a minimum. Regardless of whether his shot returns, he’s a smart defender and his passing at his position is going to unlock a whole new side of the Lakers’ offense.