Assorted Thoughts: Bubble Early Returns
The NBA is finally back, and it couldn’t come at a better time, just barely saving me from watching every single Hardwood Classic. The scrimmages helped smooth the transition, and a week or two later, we’re right back into the meaningful regular season, with many seeding queries requiring resolutions. Each team has only played a game or two, which in theory doesn’t mean much, but all the same, we’re going to be overreacting to those games, because, well, it’s fun. While one could argue 22 teams was a tad too many, most of the games, chiefly those outside of the Eastern Conference bottom-feeders’ ones, each game has some implications, either for seeding, a potential Playoff confrontation, or a classic NBA storyline. Let’s get into what’s stood out to me, so far:
The Race For The 8th Seed Just Got A Lot More Interesting (Out West)
Maybe I should replace the words ‘8th seed’ with ‘9th seed, and therefore a spot in the uphill play-in tournament’; or maybe not, when looking at the Grizzlies’ upcoming schedule (vs. NOP, UTA, OKC, TOR, BOS, MIL). This year’s 8th seed race is, due to the play-in format, 8-game restart, and season narratives, dare I say, the most exciting one ever, and serves as a nice warm-up act to the Playoffs. I had the Grizzlies earning a playoff berth just before the NBA returned, but now, after close losses to Portland and San Antonio, I’m not so sure. Another popular pick, the Pelicans, seem to be more or less without the services of Zion, or at least the Zion we were expecting. Portland, despite going 1-1, is still a much better team than their overall record suggests, and have by far the best player out of this pool. On paper, this is what the race looks like now:
MEM: 0 GB, SAS: 2 GB, POR: 2.5 GB, NOP: 3.5 GB, SAC: 3.5 GB, PHO; 4 GB
Opposed to what it was going into the restart:
MEM: 0 GB, POR: 3.5 GB, NOP: 3.5 GB, SAC: 3.5 GB, SAS: 4 GB, PHO: 6 GB
As you can see, the race has tightened from top to bottom, making it more plausible for any team to have a shot at the 8th seed. San Antonio has skyrocketed out of nowhere to claim the 9th seed, inserting themselves into the mix. But it’s the Grizzlies’ upcoming schedule (they may have already played the Pels when this comes out) that really makes things interesting, as they may only get one or two wins out of this (likely from games against the Jazz, Pelicans, and Bucks, as MIL should be resting their starters for the final game of the season). I’m not making any predictions, as it’s too close to call, but that’s what makes me so excited. Enjoy these ‘meaningful’ games, before remembering that there are bigger fish looming.
(From the future: The Pelicans beat the Grizzlies, and Zion helps at the end. And San Antonio lost.)
Legit Contenders Outside The Big 3?
Despite all of the excitement generated by the other 27 teams (not all of them, of course), we’ve all known in the back of our head that there was some invisible line separating the Bucks, Lakers, and Clippers from all the other teams. I think that, given the course of the season and early bubble returns, it’s time to recognize the next 3 teams that pose threats, the Rockets, Raptors, and Celtics, because they may pose actual threats. Each team evolved over the course of the season: Houston went all-in on small-ball and allowed Westbrook to flourish, Jayson Tatum flashed (I say flashed, and not ascended, because a lot of his late run came off of unsustainable shooting) another gear, and Toronto continued to prove us wrong, even through injuries. Some of these teams have clashed with the big dogs; Houston beat the Bucks despite going 21/61 (bricking a lot of open 3’s) on a Harden off night, the Celtics almost beat the Bucks, and probably would have if not for some questionable officiating, and Toronto mercilessly beat the Lakers by 15 points, holding LeBron AND AD to just 34/16/8, something LeBron would himself do semi-regularly during the 2018 Playoffs. While I am indeed using one game apiece as evidence, it’s important to note that the traditional extra edge of home-court advantage is gone, and it should be easier for one team to gain momentum without any travel.
The NBA’s #WholeNewGame, Is, The Same?
With news that the NBA was restarting in a bubble, there were justifiable questions about how ‘real’ the games would feel, as fans seem to play a big role in games (home team runs, Malice At The Palace, and endless hilarious exchanges on the sidelines), or more accurately, the crowd creates an atmosphere which, especially during the Playoffs, is a part of the game. The absence of fans meant that other noise must take their place, noise from what many hoped would be the players. So, after some experimenting during the scrimmages, the NBA seems to have found their formula for game presentation. We didn’t get the on-court dialogue one could wish for, but the choice words of many players wouldn’t be very apropos for younger viewers and the image of the league. Instead, on-court noise, commentating, and some Zoom fans have done just fine. My initial concern was regarding the actual stadium/playing setting, and whether it could fulfill the duality of grandeur their stadiums possess and the mysterious aesthetic (I couldn’t come up with any words to acutely describe it) that a packed stadium gives off. And the NBA seems to have done it. Between the large screens and virtual fans, the arenas feel full, and the absence of fans is muted by this. There have been many down-to-the-wire games, and I’ve been able to feel some tension, even if it’s just my mind playing tricks on me. The only gripe I have is that the camera angles now enabled due to the empty sidelines are criminally underutilized, although it appears that not everyone is as fond of the more intimate angles as I am. Overall, I’d give the TV bubble games this assessment: watching bubble games is, for me, the same as watching normal ones (although to be fair, I forgot what a normal game is really like), and that’s a 10/10 from me. This also answers any questions about the legitimacy of this year’s championship. If anything, the bubble should allow the best basketball to shine brightest.
The Breakout Watch
The perceived contrast between the bubble and a normal season (the bubble is just built different, I guess) means that some teams will experiment a little more than they usually would. On the other hand, the tightest title race in a long time is just begging for a breakout difference-maker (hello, OG). Shake Milton was a breakout story from before the hiatus, starting the season in the G-league and finishing it with a starting job. In other cases, injuries have opened up new opportunities, and we’ve already seen some guys step up (TJ Warren: 43.5/7.5/3.5 through two games, and MPJ dropped 37/12 on 92.7% TS; he’s a definitely a guy to watch; FVV dropped 36). The 8-game format magnifies each game, both in terms of importance (standings) and significance (for evaluation purposes). I can’t wait to see what else the bubble has in store for us.
Due to the unique circumstances, the best part of the the restart is that it’s possible to watch multiple games, as we’re all stuck inside, and because it’s the middle of summer, it’s not suicidal (ratings-wise) to play games from noon till night. Going forward, I want to toy around with what I write as the bubble unfolds, so expect a variety of content here.