2020 Playoffs: Round 1 Preview
The Orlando Bubble has by all means succeeded, and through an unpredictable, (hopefully) once-in-a-lifetime winding path, we have finally arrived at the Playoffs, the long-awaited conclusion to the 2019-20 NBA season. I could mince words for a bit, but honestly, I’d rather dive straight into my Round 1 predictions. I debated between going round-by-round or doing one big bracket, but given that I’m forced to choose between, well, months-old data and an 8-game sample, I’d rather get as much information as possible before each pick; this way, I can avoid a major injury or upset rendering the rest of my bracket irrelevant. With that being said, let’s get straight into some matchups!
(Oh… and, all the stats will be from the non-bubble season)
Eastern Conference
(1) Milwaukee Bucks vs (8) Orlando Magic
Your time is precious, and so is mine. This will be a good opportunity for Milwaukee to finish ironing out leftover rust. Bucks in 4.
(2) Toronto Raptors vs (7) Brooklyn Nets
This is another series that I’m simply going to go out and write off. Yeah, maybe LeVert could have had another out-of-the-blue 50-piece against some other team, but I doubt that he, or any Net for that matter, will be anything more than helpless against the Raptors’ shape-shifting, hive-minded defense. Raptors in 4.
(3) Boston Celtics vs (6) Philadelphia 76ers
Philly has been plagued my a multitude of problems this year, none of which seem to have been solved. Embiid is still settling on the outskirts of the paint, Horford seems out of place, and spacing has been suspect. While in the bubble, the Sixers did not, as some were hoping, actually fix all of these issues, and still haven’t decided whether Bubble games are home or away. With Simmons out, any pressure on the team kind of fizzles out. Although, with Simmons out, they get to try multiple iterations of Embiid-and-four-shooters, which is the one thing they have going for them, as no one on Boston can physically match up with Embiid. As I’ve talked about before, the Sixers really need a reliable ballhandler, something that’ll become apparent now that Simmons is out, unless Alec Burks’ volume miraculously skyrockets (most notably in the P&R, where he averaged 1.11 PPP as the ballhandler during the regular season). And as for the Celtics, they’re simply just top-to-bottom a better team. There will likely be a game where Embiid takes full advantage of whatever mismatch thrown his way and someone else steps up, but that’s about it. Good luck stopping the Celtics and their strong spread of perimeter scoring threats
Verdict: Celtics in 5
(4) Indiana Pacers vs (5) Miami Heat
Since the Simmons injury, Heat-Pacers was the series that I mentally pegged as the only real competitive 1st-round tango out East. Of course, despite the nearly identical records, Miami has a net rating of 3.0 to Indiana’s 2.0, and is also coming into this series with a full roster. The Pacers are missing Sabonis, who’s been receiving medical attention outside of the bubble, in addition to Jeremy Lamb, who tore his ACL. Oladipo has struggled (16.0/5.7/2.8) on 40.0/34.3/88.9 splits and 51.7% TS, in addition to being a - in +/-. Indiana’s guy, however, has obviously been TJ Warren, who’s averaged 31 points on 68.4% TS en route to an All-Bubble 1st-Team spot. And talking of TJ Warren, lets pivot to his arch-nemesis, Jimmy Butler. Fueled by his $20 coffee, Butler locked up TJ Warren in their much-anticipated rematch, holding him to an ugly 14 points on 14 shots. That matchup will play a key part in the series, as Warren has been the focal point of Indiana’s offense. I fully expect Butler to relentlessly hound Warren and disrupt his flow. However, the Heat aren’t a dominant team, and Indiana won’t just wilt before them, despite this exact iteration of the Pacers being pretty new; expect it to be a fun series, though, especially with Warren and Butler matching up each night.
Verdict: Heat in 6
Western Conference
Now we get to the big brother conference, the West. Every series may not be completely competitive, but they all have something exciting going for them.
(1) Los Angeles Lakers vs (8) Portland Trail Blazers
Portland is a hot topic right now, claiming the 8th seed behind a 6-2 bubble performance fueled Damian Lillard’s superhuman 37.6/4.3/9.6 on 67.7% TS. Coupled with the Lakers’ struggles, it’s become pretty trendy to question if the series is more than a warm-up for the Lakers. Despite Damian Lillard’s brilliance and Portland’s success, that answer is still no. Even with Lillard playing out-of-his mind, Portland has still just barely squeezed by with a 2.1 net rating, a number that should be higher given how ‘good’ they’re playing. Portland gives up almost as much as they score, and most importantly, who the hell is going to guard LeBron. Melo? CJ? Gary Trent? Yes, LeBron’s struggled during the seeding games, but his playoff brilliance has earned him my benefit of the doubt. Portland should find themselves hitting on all cylinders at least once, possibly early in the series while the Lakers are still returning to pre-hiatus form. I could talk about how missing Avery Bradley may force LA to be more aggressive against Dame than they’d like, but frankly, I don’t think it will matter. There’s no other way to put it; Lakers are just better.
Verdict: Lakers in 5
(2) Los Angeles Clippers vs (7) Mavericks
This year’s two-seed is unfairly fated to face a too-good Mavericks team, based on where they’re seated. The Mavericks were actually, according to their net rating, the 6th best (5.8 net rating) team this year, and they famously fielded the best offense ever. What got them to the 7th spot was their horrendous clutch play, during which their offensive rating nosedived down to 99.2 across 163 minutes. While it’s ok to drop some games during the regular season, the postseason cuts down the margin for error. Clutch efficiency isn’t necessarily needed in the Playoffs, but as the clear underdog, you need to capitalize on whatever opportunities you can get. This will be Luka Doncic’s first Playoff appearance, against the team quite possibly best fit to defend him. The Clippers have perhaps the two best wing defenders in the entire league, both of whom are taller, longer, and stronger than Luka. He hasn’t particularly struggled against the Clippers, but once he’s their sole focus, watch out. Despite having the best offense ever, the Mavericks may have trouble matching the Clippers over a full 48 minutes. One adjustment (I saw this idea first from @RyMichail on twitter) that could help align then with the Clippers rotation is starting Max Kleber over Seth Curry. It gives the Mavericks a bigger starting 5 that can match that of the Clippers, which could really help contain Kawhi and PG (Kleber is an underrated perimeter defender), and by moving Seth Curry to the bench, the second unit now has an offensive focal point, and the Mavs can hope to at least trade shots with the Clippers’ dynamic bench duo. Unfortunately though, no matter what lineup Rick Carlisle throws out there, the Clippers probably have the personal to match up (maybe not Boban-Kristaps, admittedly). I expect most of the games to be close, but the Clippers match up too well against Dallas.
Verdict: Clippers in 5
(3) Denver Nuggets vs (6) Utah Jazz
Utah is already down a key starter, and will miss another in Mike Conley, at least for Game 1, as he’s attending the birth of his son. The Jazz’s short-handedness matters more against Denver, who have a deep bench to lean into when they need, even before Will Barton and Gary Harris return. The Jazz are good, but Bogdanovic’s absence means that Utah’s other creators can’t take a night off. Gobert vs Jokic is a fun matchup, when Denver has the ball, but Jokic will tease Gobert out on the perimeter, neutralizing what he does best for a significant number of plays. Denver might want to watch how many corner three’s they give up, a shot that Utah loves and the Nuggets don’t mind giving up, but they’re not going to win this series on the defensive end. Make sure to keep an eye on is Michael Porter Jr., who could potentially speed up the series with a big game.
Verdict: Nuggets in 6
(4) Oklahoma City Thunder vs (5) Houston Rockets
This matchup is truly a gift from above. Not only do we get one of the NBA’s biggest surprises playing the NBA’s most unique team, but the narratives run deep. Russell Westbrook and Chris Paul were swapped last off-season, the main source of tension for the series. Westbrook is missing the beginning of the series, but it’s not like CP3 and Harden departed as best buddies. Just make sure that the locker rooms aren’t connected by any secret tunnels. On the basketball side, with Harden playing but Westbrook (and Capela) off, Houston still has a net rating of 6.8; what they’ll need to worry about are there minutes that don’t feature an All-Star guard, although it should be enough to keep them afloat until Russ returns. And not only this, but the teams play completely different styles. Take a look.
Finally, in my opinion, each team has a clear x- factor; Gallinari for the Thunder, and Austin Rivers for Houston. Gallo has a full offensive package at 6’10. Wait, how tall are the Rockets’ starters? 6’7 and below? That’s right, Gallo’s skill and size advantage gives him the ceiling to score a lot of points this series, something that could keep Oklahoma City afloat, given that they’re simply a worse team. Austin Rivers is who I see as the Rocket that can fill a part of the hole filled by Westbrook. He still has, deep within him, the talent that he showcased as a high-schooler, which likes to peek it’s head above the surface from time to time; the only question is whether that can be channeled to stop the series from going to a Game 7, where anything can happen. What I know for certain, however, is that this will be a fun series no matter which way you decide to look at it.
Verdict: Rockets in 7
Well, that was fun. Let’s see how I do. I don’t care, actually; I’d just like to watch the Playoffs.