What Do The Thunder Have In SGA? - A Shai Gilgeous-Alexander Breakdown, Part 2

(Thumbnail by the @nba_paint - he makes some really cool stuff!)

In Part 2 of my SGA breakdown series, we take a look at his passing. No boring intro this time, let’s dive right in!

Passing

Well surpassing his 3-pt shooting leap, the meteoric rise of Shai’s passing ability this season has been nothing short of spectacular. Understanding how he improved as a passer, as in, which mental abilities he refined, is imperative if we are to accurately map out his ceiling. To better understand what actually constitutes a player’s ‘feel’, go ahead and read Evan Zaucha's piece on it (after you’re finished here, of course). If you don’t have time to go through it, I can give you this quick excerpt from the author himself: “If I had to describe feel in more concrete terms, I’d describe it as the sum of a player’s pattern recognition, visual processing (especially spatial recognition), and processing speed.” It was also made clear that feel can be developed, though its development is far from an exact science. Throughout his first two seasons, there was not too much on display that pointed to a profound passing ability hidden somewhere in Shai. Last season, 19.7% of his passes created for others (with creation defined by potential assist, FT assists, and secondary assists), good for 114th in the league (out of 410 qualifiers), not exactly a standout number - for some context, that came while throwing the 38.7 passes a game, 86th among the same group as before. Some other players with virtually those same 19-20 #’s: Cory Joseph, Isaiah Thomas, Derrick White, and Will Barton; not exactly where we’d like SGA’s name to pop up. This matched up with the eye-test, which showed a serviceable passer, and not much more. While it may be unfair to cherry-pick a single low-light from his 19-20 campaign, the clip I’m about to show does well in capturing 19-20 Shai’s weaknesses as a passer:

What was, or rather, what wasn’t, so special about this play? Well, this is a crystal-clear example of what I like to call a pre-read. What this means is that Shai had already decided what he was going to do before he even touched the ball. Not in the Nikola-Jokic-seeing-into-the-future way, but rather in the I-can’t-make-split-second-reads-and-decisions way (which is incredibly hard, just to be clear). It appears to me (emphasis: to me) that SGA streaked down the court with the assumption that Horford would completely rotate under the hoop, opening up Gallo for a corner three; Shai acted on it, driving to the hoop and throwing a sweet wrap-around pass right into the welcoming hands of Gallinari for an open corner 3. But that didn’t actually happen, did it? No. Instead, Horford merely swipes at the ball, staying well out of SGA’s driving lane and declining to meet him at the rim. Simultaneously, Gallo floats up to the wing, complicating a potential defensive recovery. The right play would have been for Shai to go all the way and take the wide-open layup, aka the best shot in basketball. Except that he couldn’t, because Shai had already decided on a course of action. See the problem? Additionally, even if Gallo had sat tight in the corner, the pass was too high - which may not seem like a big deal, but the extra second or so it would take Gallo to put the ball in the right spot would turn his open 3-pointer into a less favorable contested look.

Beyond that, Shai never really threw any passes that ‘wow’-ed you. No manipulation or ‘one step ahead’ type passes. If I could sort every passer into two categories, reactive and proactive, SGA most definitely falls into the former. He was coming along with the basics, learning the P&R passes and such, but his scoring far outpaced his vision, which soured me on his prospects as a lead-ballhandler - you simply can’t have the ball in your hands for a large chunk of time if your vision cuts you off from parts of the court. Luckily, I have two pieces of good news to share. First off - while Shai relied almost exclusively on reactive reads, his gravity as a driver meant that his functional playmaking ability (my definition: what you do, as opposed to what you can do - aka, being a scoring threat means better functional playmaking) was still solid. As we’ve gone over before, Shai is an elite dribble-drive penetrator. This year’s team, devoid of shooters, would really test not only his penetration chops but also his downhill decision-making. I’m happy to report that I was pleasantly surprised.

Kickout Passing

There’s a lot to like when it comes to Shai’s passing on drives. He’s added an unselfish layer this year, passing out of drives about 10% more often than he did last season (some of which could be attributed to lackluster spacing), bringing us to square one: he doesn’t force it. It’s a little thing aspect to his drives that actually goes quite a long way. SGA is more than willing to kick-out and reset without having ‘made a play’, helping him limit mistakes, as he does so below:

What also makes this work is Shai’s incredible court mapping - he always knows where his safety valves are, which is a lifesaver when there’s nothing there. SGA didn’t create a great look, but he avoided an entirely plausible disaster by rescuing himself just in time. Yet this is just the tip of the iceberg. The unique superpower of knowing where the guys behind you are, in conjunction with an incredible knack for mid-air contortion, fuels Shai’s unconventional kickouts.

They can occasionally go wrong, but this is rarely the case, thanks to SGA both knowing where his teammates are and possessing the ability to re-orientate himself as needed.

Furthermore, that occasional blunder loses even more significance when you take into account that SGA is learning kick out behind him without having to turn his body, thanks to an incredible intersection of coordination and length:

The same skills that fuel those unconventional kickouts - controlled body contortion (proprioception) and court awareness - power Shai’s kickouts at large. From Day 1 of the 20-21 season, SGA has been elite at kicking out. It doesn’t exactly require top-tier feel, but the combination of his driving gravity and ability to create passing angles is more than enough to get the job done. The diversity of his kickouts are astounding. He can stop & kick on a dime:

Kick out on the move:

(Two things to take away here: 1. As you can see from the second clip, not all of Shai’s drive & kick creation is going to show up in the box score. 2. This on-the-move passing shows quick processing, a good sign for SGA going forward.)

His length opens up windows that simply don’t exist for other players:

(Again - Shai won’t get credit for this play - unless you check out NBA.com’s tracking stats - but even then, at most ~1/3 of those plays will actually show up.)

Come on, how is this fair? Shai used every inch available in the clip above, a privilege he enjoys on a regular occasion. Furthermore, SGA is quite creative, using fakes to open up angles like this one:

Add the two together, and you get something that looks like this:

(Something to take note of in the second clip: SGA shows great patience/understanding by waiting for George Hill to fill the corner, realizing the tough spot it puts Zubac in, and immediately forcing the issue.)

Why am I showing you all of these clips? Well, two reasons. The first is that Shai’s kickout game is elite - he can get the ball to shooters, regardless of what’s in his path, or whatever angle that path is facing. The other is that these clips helped highlight the technical passing ability that SGA possesses, with the requisite coordination, strength, and touch to throw a variety of different passes from a variety of different scenarios. I mean, just look at this gorgeous bounce pass:

Pick & Roll/Downhill Passing

Now would be as good a time as ever to address the large elephant in the room - as technically impressive as some of these passes have been, they’ve all gone to obnoxiously open players stationed around on the arc. These decisions haven’t required much thought, either; it’s reactive passing at its core. A guy is open, let me get him the ball. In order to be a lead ballhandler, SGA is going to have to show a bit more playmaking extravagance. So, how’s he been looking?

The Bad

Despite Shai’s above-average knack for finding open shooters, he struggled with downhill passing (what I define as passing the ball to someone closer to the hoop than you are), seemingly stuck somewhere between inadequate pattern recognition and visual processing. This weakness showed up in two different forms. The first is simply missing easy passes to guys right under the hoop:

I really don’t like these plays. They sacrifice easy points and point to somewhat limited pattern recognition. In the latter two plays, SGA is all-too-comfortable passing over a potential touchdown throw, instead settling for a field goal by kicking it out for 3.

The Very-Bad

The other discouraging sign was Shai’s struggles in the P&R. To stifle his drives, teams started off the season either hedging or trapping Shai out of the P&R and then quickly recovering, betting on SGA’s inability to timely string together a solution. The traps worked, as SGA failed time and time again to force the issue with a 4v3 advantage. This was most notable in the season opener against the Hornets, in which the P&R was neutralized every time:

This doesn’t look like lead ballhandler material, which doesn’t bode well for someone whose contributions come with the ball in his hands.

Signs for Optimism

Luckily, Shai exhibited two distinct signs that there was some serious upside swimming below the surface. The first was his awareness. If I had to point out something that could be concealing SGA’s ceiling as a playmaker, I’d point at these two plays right here:

Unlike the rushed possessions against Charlotte above, Shai is in complete control here, playing at his own pace. He slows down just long enough to allow the second defender to catch up to him, giving the popping Horford the most space possible. The spatial awareness/timing on display here is very encouraging for his prospects as a lead ballhandler.

You could also start to see the seeds for some P&R improvement, even if it wasn’t going to be instant - the P&R Passing Fairy doesn’t just visit overnight. Coming into the season, SGA lacked a lot of the technical passing acumen required in the P&R, chiefly the ability to create and punish a wide array of windows. However, Shai’s new role and the Thunder’s unique situation (tanking) gave him the requisite space to make mistakes; SGA fulfilled his side of the bargain by taking those opportunities, allowing himself to make mistakes and grow from them. Look at these two clips, for starters:

What’s to like here? Well, both clips place Shai in a particular predicament, with two defenders standing between him and the roller. The first clip shows him acknowledge the situation, and you can clearly see SGA scanning for an angle before eventually giving up on the roll. The latter clip shows Shai go for the pass, but his inability to manipulate the defense means that the possession ends like you may have expected it to.

Technical Passing Improvements

However, it’s not all bad. That same Pelicans game offered a collection of positive flashes,

namely Shai beating the blitz three different times with three unique passes. These are encouraging improvements, no doubt the result of increased comfort as the lead ballhandler. Over the course of the season, SGA has seriously expanded his P&R passing repertoire. He’s consistently executing a variety of P&R passes, from the pocket passes:

(Another sign of growth: SGA better understands P&R angles, specifically the angle needed to create the pocket pass. He takes a step or two forward after receiving the screen to get the desired defensive look, a defender in front of him and a defender on his side, where the gap between the two gives him the 45-degree angle required for a pocket pass. Previously, he was allowing the defense to dictate where that window was, which made the pass to the roller exponentially harder.)

To calmly splitting the blitz:

(This play shows off two of Shai’s big improvements - quick decision-making, and a ball-fake used to create the passing window.)

Now, contrast this clip with a pair of possessions from earlier on in the season, when neither of those traits were present when needed:

We also have whatever these passes are called (if you have the proper/a good name suggestion, please dm it to me on Twitter):

And don’t forget, these are all enabled in part by the ridiculous arm strength and coordination that Shai possesses, the type that allows him to fire off lasers like the one below (OTD, no less):

Yet, while sped-up processing and technical passing ability were all on shining display here, missing in action was any semblance of an attempt to move defenders via ball/eye placement (sans that one clip). That’s not to demean the value of technical skills - rather, it’s me noting that this merely reflects SGA rounding out his passing ability as opposed to renovating it. This lack of manipulation showed up in the stat sheet, too. During the 19-20 season, Shai produced 97 3-point assists to 85 rim assists, while almost all of the league’s top creators had more rim assist than 3P ones. This, I feel, points to all the plays that SGA did not make on a regular basis.

Improved Feel (Pattern Recognition/Visual Processing/Processing Speed)

Anyway, the Miami game marked a new beginning for Shai as a passer. Although nothing explicitly came of it, let’s look at the most important clip from the game.

(If you didn’t pick up on it while watching the video, Shai exhibited 3 important traits: 1. He glances in the direction of his open teammate to alter Herro’s closeout trajectory. 2. SGA doesn’t settle for a kickout 3, and instead aggressively pursues a layup pass. 3. In order to free up Horford, he attempts to blend his floater in with the pass.)

There were a couple of things to like here - put together, I LOVE them. The play doesn’t end like you may have hoped it would, and the decision to attack a packed paint was questionable; but, SGA is experimenting, and that’s what matters. His elite coordination and smooth playstyle mean that he should have a high aptitude for blending his shots with his passes, as the league’s elite P&R operators do. Ultimately, it comes down to the mental aspect of the game - does Shai have good-enough feel to dictate the defense, or will defenses, for the most part, dictate him?

It’s not an either-or answer, as nuance exists between the two poles. We’re looking for progress:

(This clip has some good and some bad. The good - Shai manipulates Bam via ball placement, which gives him space to drive. The bad (although not too terrible) - He kicks out to Bazley rather than trying to get the ball to Horford.)

Next, we get a nice little no-look:

It’s not too flashy, but SGA explicitly not staring at his target is yet another taste of his playmaking potential.

Ok, now let’s turn it up a notch:

Here, Shai chooses a target and manipulates the defense with his eyes to get said target open. It’s hard to see from the TV angle, so I’d recommend re-watching the clip, this time focusing exclusively on Vassell (#24), who’s tasked with splitting the difference between Dort and Jackson. Did you keep your eyes on Vassell? If so, you’ll see that he reacted to SGA’s smokescreen.

There is, however, a caveat here. Shai sees Dort at the end of his drive (before he stops and pivots), and seems set on delivering him the ball. Although he used manipulation to get the ball where he wanted it to go, I’m not sure if he was ready to potentially change his receiver, should the situation call for it. A similar scenario, albeit w/o any manipulation from SGA, plays out below:

As you can see, Shai locks in on a target, stares him down, and delivers him the ball, oblivious to Murray’s defensive activity on the weakside. A live read would have told SGA that Murray committing to Bazley meant that George Hill was open.

However, Shai has exhibited multiple counterexamples to what you just saw. Look at these two beautiful passes below (which were good enough to receive their own clips), where SGA reads the entire court and uses his eyes to pry his shooter open:

Watch the clips again. Seriously, just look at them! This is some serious growth compared to where we started at the beginning of the article.

Finally, let’s take a closer look at Shai’s ability to read a live defense, the same deficiency that seemed to limit him beforehand.

This is practically the mirror image of play where SGA threw a turnover, except this time, he read the player splitting the difference (in real-time) and made the right decision.

Another sign of advanced court vision was Shai’s budding ability to find the open man by reading defenders, as opposed to checking through all of his teammates. That type of reading showed up in plays like the one below:

This time around, SGA doesn’t even look at Dort until the ball is practically in his hands. If you watch closely, you’ll see Shai start to slow down as soon as he registers Dejounte Murray coming to help, rather than when he sees Dort open in the corner. Furthermore, he keeps his gaze neutral, slow Patty Mills’ help.

He can read the defense, yes, but to what extent? Well, check out this insanely-fast read:

I really don’t think it can get any faster, or more intuitive, than that.

The last bit of growth SGA has exhibited, in the realm of reads, has been his ability to process cutters/new teammates entering the play:

So, all put together, what do these traits look like? Well, they look something like this:

Or this:

WTF! These passes have it all - court awareness, near-instant processing, and merciless manipulation.

The numbers on this - well, as the tape shows, a lot of Shai’s passes, no matter how spectacular they are, simply don’t show up in the box score, the result of playing with an inexperienced, offensively-challenged team. Despite that, he’s still enjoying a large statistical improvement (creation% being the percent of his passes that become a Potential Assist, FT Assist, or Secondary Assist):

As you can see, despite taking on a larger offensive role - passing more often, and spending almost twice as much time on-ball (4 minutes a game to 7.5 this year) - Shai is creating more shots for teammates on a per-pass basis. In raw numbers, that’s 13.7 Potential Assists a game, which places him squarely in the company of the league’s top ballhandlers, a spot that I can say, with confidence, he truly belongs in.

Thanks for making it to the end! If you enjoyed the article, a great way to it would be by giving me a share on Twitter (via a retweet, quote tweet, or whatnot). If you somehow missed Part 1 of the series, where I went over Shai’s ballhandling, movement skills, and physical tools, you can read about it here. Have a great day (even though you should already be having one, after finishing up with this)!