What Do The Thunder Have In SGA? - A Shai Gilgeous-Alexander Breakdown, Part 3

Hi. It’s, uhhh, been a minute since I last wrote about Shai. Don’t worry, I never abandoned this series; I just branched out. Anyway, I’m back, and ready to talk all about Shai’s scoring. Let’s jump in!

Where?

As I mentioned in Part 1, ‘19-20 SGA primarily added value through his scoring. And while ‘20-21 Shai turned into a lethal penetrator and a top-20-ish playmaker, scoring is still the ground zero of Shai’s game, the magic web that ties it all together. We’ll start by looking at his ‘19-20 numbers, then take a comprehensive look at each level of his scoring (where it is now and how it can plausibly improve), before finally capping it off by taking a peek at his ‘20-21 scoring numbers, now with a complete season of data!

And, here’s how that stacks up to others at his position, via percentiles:

As you can see, Shai’s game is (was?) heavily slanted towards shots inside the arc, with a soft spot for the short-midrange area (4-14 feet). And as for the one ‘zone’ missing here - the charity stripe - SGA had a Shooting Fouled Percentage (the % of shot attempts he was fouled on) of 13.1% last season (86th percentile among wings). This is pretty good but not elite, especially given that ~4/5’s of his shots were coming from inside the arc to begin with (he also shoots 80% from the line, a perfectly average conversion rate for his position). Ok, time to dive in. Why not work our way from the outside in?

3-Point Shooting

There are a couple of ways to get into this. First off, I’d like to say that before the 20-21 season, I regarded Shai as a ‘2.5-level’ scorer rather than a 3-level one. Looking beyond zero-sum 3-pt numbers, it is evidently clear that Shai improved as a shooter from year-one to year-two:

(Shoutout to the data-viz king himself, @crumpledjumper, for coming up with the idea for the graph below; give him a follow if you don’t already.)

Once he starts to hit the ceiling of his 3-pt shooting ability, the % that goes in will probably come down to role; so, at this point in his career, we’re still evaluating the ability. Ok, well then, where was the improvement? As the graph above shows, OKC’s SGA started taking pull-up 3’s, hitting them at the same clip as those mere 22 attempts in LA, while also shooting a tad bit fewer C&S 3’s despite hitting them at a seriously improved rate. However, the number of ‘pull-up’ 3’s he took overstates the degree of difficulty he actually encountered. After watching his attempts, defenses treated Shai’s shooting as an afterthought; and the numbers strongly agree with this sentiment: 61% (2.2/3.6) of his 3’s were ‘wide-open’ (as classified by NBA.com, which basically means that the closest defender was 6+ out; simply, these are the types of 3’s we generally think of as ‘open’) while the league-average % of 3’s that are ‘open’ was 47%. The fact that SGA was taking more than his fair share of open 3’s should help reinforce the fact that he was not taken seriously as a shooter; another little indicator - the average distance of his 3PA’s was a hair’s breadth below league average. Now, onto the shot itself.

Shai has a pretty unorthodox shooting form:

From my observations (I’m not a shot doctor by any stretch of the imagination), the some of the biggest standouts are:

• Speed - the shot is pretty slow, requiring a long, winding load-up sequence before getting to its apex

• Release Point - these clips may be a bit too favorable in this regard; his release point is relatively low, and sometimes looks like he’s pushing it out from his chest

• Left Hand - Shai’s left hand plays a larger-than-I’d-like role in his shot; he relies on it heavily when getting his shot into place, which may explain why he looked (from the 3’s I watched, although my eyes may have misled me) noticeably more comfortable shooting off a dribble from his left hand as opposed to his right. On top of this, he likes to place it much closer to the top of the ball, relative to other players. This may set a hard ceiling on the speed of his release long-term, but for now, if it works, I have no problem

• Jump - while this isn’t necessarily a good or a bad thing, Shai barely jumps on his shots; however, he usually seems to release the ball at a reasonable time, conserving enough momentum from the jump.

And while I do have some questions about how far he can go with his current form, there still is some low-hanging fruit that can be addressed right now.

Inconsistent Releases: Shai’s follow-through, especially with his shooting hand, can occasionally break down. Sometimes, it’s not entirely locked into place and can lose its direction:

(Notice here how his right elbow frays out a bit, and as a result, his right hand drifts to the left after the release)

Other times, he abandons his follow-through entirely, quickly retracting his hands:

While moments like these may come and go, experience should help iron these out. Shai still seems to be finding the release he’s most comfortable with, which may be the root cause of those occasional inconsistencies; whatever it is, I’d like him to clean it up.

The changes (rather than bug fixes) I’d like to see go back to my initial observations from above. Shai’s lackluster speed and low release point can occasionally rob him of what would otherwise be wide-open, unbothered shots. Additionally, if he one-day wants teams to play up to the level of the screen in P&Rs (which will unlock his ceiling as a player), a slightly higher release point, with those arms, will go a long way in making these shots a viable weapon and worthy of respect. The P&R below does not see that type of pressure, but Shai’s release point still stood out as a tad too forgiving to the defense, if they were to play up to the level of the screen:

Additionally, a faster trigger would work its magic in multiple ways. Not only would squeezing pull-up into P&R coverage be more do-able, but the ‘floor’ of his shooting, those wide-open attempts, would be much easier if he was consistently getting them off before allowing a desperate hand to fly by:

In the case above, a slightly sped-up release was the difference between a wide-open shot and a lightly contested one. His follow-through also falls through a bit early, but not to the same degree as in the clip before (which simply goes towards highlighting his inconsistencies in that area).

Going into the season, Shai’s 3-pt shooting (among other things) was an area of particular interest for me, given that he didn’t have another ballhandler like CP3 or even Schroeder to play off of. Given Shai’s combination of soft touch and mechanical flaws in his more-of-a-set-shot-and-not-very-versatile 3-point shot, I expected him to struggle with his %, even though it wasn’t going to be the be-all-end-all sign of progress for me. As I mentioned earlier, one of the keys to Shai’s ceiling as a player revolved around whether he could become a dynamic, off-the-dribble 3-point shot-maker, turning into a true 3-level scorer and opening up the floodgates for his downhill pressure. Optimistically, there was not a lot of evidence to support this development. But, as I said: was. That was, after all, before he started doing stuff like this:

(Make or miss, these videos are incredibly encouraging. 1 - You don’t simply bust these out in the heat of the moment; Shai has obviously been investing a lot of work into this. 2 - As SGA starts to speed up his release, he’ll be able to combine his 3-pt shooting with more and more of his incredible movement/mobility chops. 3 - Finally, he seems to have gotten past the biggest hurdle, which is being able to fluidly transition from a live dribble to a controlled shot attempt.)

This type of off-the-dribble 3-pt shooting is an entirely new addition to Shai’s game. What’s stood out the most so far is the incredible diversity of SGA’s attempts, which, looking back, isn’t too crazy of a development given his incredible on-ball movement and proprioception.

Equally as impressive as his carefully crafted pull-up 3’s are those that came out of nowhere, popping up in the flow of the game. In the first clip, Ross ices the screen despite Shai’s signature in-and-out dribble intended to send Ross right (which would give SGA headstart to the rim after using the screen). This throws him off a bit, but not for long, as he calmly re-adjusts, steps up to the line, and smoothly fires. In the second clip, Shai loses a rare dribble, but recovers quickly enough to get a good-looking shot off. It’s shots like these that are getting me incredibly excited about where Shai can go as a versatile, OTD 3-pt shooter. And while this is a great sign of things to come, it’s still only one part of SGA’s new 3-point repertoire.

He’s turning his signature in-and-out move into stepbacks:

His fancy new tricks are only half the equation - the other big change is that he’s being way more aggressive shooting the ball (although not to an unhealthy degree, I might add), seeking out shots rather than waiting for him to come to him, as he did last year. Smart people have talked about the importance of shooting volume and versatility and their role in creating gravity; the bottom line - defenses respond to attempts, and proactively shooting will demand their attention.

Whether it be coming off a screen:

(Notice how the defense treats SGA as an afterthought; enough of these no-hesitation shots will get them to start closing out, as they do in the second clip)

Or just dribbling around on the perimeter:

And, last but most certainly not least, he’s shooting pull-up 3’s vs the drop:

(This is arguably Shai’s most important development. Being able to warp the floor while stationed above the arc - aka, up at the level of the ball screen - will, as I’ve mentioned beforehand, be HUGE. Oh, and 3-point shots are pretty efficient, too.)

A big part of this seems to be his slightly sped-up release. As you saw in the clips from above, he’s done this by blending the wind-up motion for his shot much better than before, leading to a smoother release that’s shed some of its hitch. He also seems to start his shooting motion a bit higher up, which likely plays a role in the release speed as well.

Ok, but are these improvements also showing up in the box score? Amazingly, yes. NBA.com's free playtype data gives us just enough clues to calculate 3PM (3-point makes) in the Pick & Roll per game, which, while far from the perfect stat, can tell us something about Shai’s pull-up 3-pt shooting in the P&R. During the 19-20 campaign, SGA canned 0.3 3’s per game in the pick and roll. This year? 1.03, so basically, a 3 a game, something that defenses should begin to take notice of. Oh, and did I mention that he was one of the most efficient P&R Ballhandlers this season? Coincidence? Who knows.

Remember that 3-point shooting chart from earlier? Let’s take another look at it, but this time with some ‘20-21 numbers added on:

(Now look, this was The Year of Shooting Leaps 2021, but still. We only got 170 attempts from Shai this season, way below what’s ideal (although a good 132 of them were pull-ups). But at the very least, SGA making shots as opposed to missing them is a positive indicator for his shooting).

So, the bottom line? Shai has transformed himself into a legitimate off-the-bounce shooter, using his length and handle to create the requisite space needed to fire. Before we leave this section, I want us to take a quick peek at what the future could hold for a fully-realized Shai:

Why is this play so special? I’ll explain. Whether or not Shai’s shot was truly respected on this play is irrelevant. The late-clock scenario amplifies Shai’s scoring gravity - there’s no time to pass - so PG’s sole objective here is stopping Shai from getting any shot off, nevermind a good one; how defenses will (hopefully) one-day play SGA. Back to the actual play, he doesn’t beat PG to the rack, but his ridiculous deceleration leaves George on an island, and George’s subsequent frantic recovery exposes him for a re-drive.

The Midrange

Before we talk about Shai’s long midrange shooting itself, let’s first have a quick, nuanced discussion on the place of midrange shooting in today’s game (if you already have a reasonable opinion on this, feel free to skip ahead to the actual analysis part). I’ll try to keep it very brief:

Essentially, a good midrange shot derives its value from context. A player whose flagship skill is midrange shooting might have issues making any sort of offensive impact, because while midrange shooting can raise the floor on a given # of possessions, it’s not efficient enough to, say, be a shot that offensive teams hunt, and due to that, is the least likely of all shots to draw help. On the other hand, adding a reputable midrange game in combination with something else (such as downhill pressure/scoring at the rim) is very valuable, as it keeps the defense honest and opens up avenues for you to play to your strengths. So, I’d like to see two things from SGA, however contradictory they may be - a good midrange shot, and as few midrange attempts as possible. Ready?

Adding together Shai’s ‘18-19 and ‘19-20 long midrange numbers (according to CTG), we get 48.4% on 250 attempts, with both years almost identical statistically. That is… very good. However, let’s stratify those attempts, as not all are created equal. The shot is clearly there, but I’m looking for something a bit more specific. Now, tell me what the big difference is between the first and last two clips that I’m about to show you:

Ok. Well, the first two clips are “bad” middies. These were incredibly prevalent in ‘19-20’s SGA, contributing to his relatively large midrange volume. Why I don’t like these plays is quite simple - Shai is given a pocket of space, arguably basketball’s most prized possession, and then squanders it by putting up a middy, not the best shot in basketball. The latter clips see the exact opposite happen. Shai has nowhere to go and despite that creates separation out of thin air. He uses two different methods, both utilizing his otherworldly stopping ability. The first is purely slamming on the breaks - Lonzo is all too eager to mirror Shai’s drive, so Shai simply stops and shoots. In the second clip, LaVine is playing right up on Shai, using his strength and athleticism to get all up in SGA’s body. So, to counter that, Shai stops and steps back, creating space for the shot. These are tough, self-created shots that will always be in Shai’s back pocket, no matter what the situation is.

So, due to the different types of middies that SGA puts up, that 48% might not be as bright and shiny as it appears to be on the surface; make no mistake though, it’s still a damn good clip. And that all comes with a career 19% ASTD%, a number that’s stayed constant throughout. Now, I assume you’re not here to watch a 3-minute SGA long-midrange compilation (or maybe you were; my bad). I’ve watched a ton of these, and between my film-watching and the #’s, you best believe that Shai is a very good midrange shooter - he can pull a half-decent shot out of mid-air, thanks to his incredible stopping ability and soft, mesmerizing release.

So Shai fulfilled the first half of the bargain; he has a lethal midrange shot that diversifies his game and helps keep the defense honest - a shot that comes in handy every now and again:

However, your midrange shot is your counter, not your first foot forwards. Shai being able to stay aggressive despite having that shot in his back pocket, and using it as leverage for even better shots, is what I really wanted to see. Going into the season, I was unsure whether a terrible roster around him would make it impossible to evaluate this. I am happy to report that I was dead wrong. According to CTG, Shai took a mere 7% of his shots from the long-midrange - only 35 in total(!), with 7 of those coming in the first two games! Now I realize that I may be walking on Legos when talking about the midrange, so I’ve tried to be as articulate as possible. Shai’s midrange game is in a great spot right now - he can create separation at will, and has these shots in his back pocket despite not having to use them all too often. Yeah, that section was a bit dreary. Anyway, onto a fun one!

Short Mid (Floater) Range

Ok, now this is where it starts to get fun, and the alluring aesthetic of Shai Gilgeous-Alexander starts to take hold. These shots complement Shai’s at-the-basket finishing, keeping defenses honest from the arc to the baseline on each of his 25 nightly drives which ultimately leads to more opportunities at the rim, especially in a playoff setting.

Wait, did I say playoffs? Yes, I did. Self-creation is the magic elixir come postseason time, and it’s the lens through which we’ll view what Shai does in the short midrange area. The main ingredients that go into the creation of these shots - the physical tools exercised and the situations in which they come - are what I’m really looking for here. Because, you see, pure shooting ability is only a part of it. I will go over what shots he’s comfortable with and all that, but the meat of the evaluation lies in the creation of the shot rather than the finish; how he creates space for the shots he’s comfortable with is what’s of essence here.

Lacking traditional horizontal and vertical explosion, Shai has to harness his own unique superpowers - incredible stopping and fluid movement - to carve out shots in the paint. Surprisingly, the overwhelming majority of SGA’s ‘floater range’ shots were not actually floaters, the shot that has become a graduation requirement at Modern NBA Guard Academy. The reason for a dearth of Shai floaters is two-fold. The first is that between his rudimentary burst and OKC’s torrid spacing, the soft pockets of space that a floater slices though rarely presented themselves. The second is that, well, Shai is more comfortable with a different type of shot, one that will be discussed very shortly.

My special interest in Shai’s floater stems from my wondering of whether or not he’ll be able to develop that singular floater/lob-pass motion perfected by the Trae’s and Harden’s of the world. And honestly, I don’t know the answer, not until OKC rolls out some form of modern spacing (which includes a rim-runner). However, while it’s still a possibility, I would probably lean towards pessimism, given it’s not a shot SGA is too comfortable taking.

Okay, too much talking. What were Shai’s improvements and how did they happen? Well, here’s the what:

As you can, virtually all of Shai’s shots here were self-created. Furthermore, he upped his efficiency in that zone from ‘around league-average’ to ‘ELITE’. How did he do it? Well, he did it by cutting out the floaters and leaning into a signature jumper I didn’t even realize he had, some sort of a Michael Jordan - SGA crossover:

(Now, that much space was a rare occurrence - I simply used the clip because it properly showcased Shai’s short mid-range pull-up, the characteristics of which being the preceding full-stop, pointed hang time, and ever-so-soft arced release.)

But, as I said earlier, pockets of space like the one above don’t often present themselves for Shai. The question is how he gets that space, space that can be the difference between a bad shot

and a good one,

a miss and a make. How space is or isn’t created is what’s of interest.

Shai’s ridiculous ability to just stop, no matter how much steam he’s built up, is unparalleled. Like, come on now:

Anyway, Shai understands this massive advantage he holds over practically every opponent he faces and knows how to exploit it when going downhill against a variety of different looks. He can create space when the defense sags off:

SGA creates space for his jumper by going downhill at full-throttle, getting his defender to start backpedaling to keep up with his presumed drive. Then, as he begins to backpedal, Shai simply stops, waiting, waiting, waiting for his defender to follow suit. Except that, like most NBA players, they can’t, and are forced to helplessly watch as he hoists a wide-open shot. Even with a defender on his hip, assuming they commit hard, Shai can still slam the breaks without any contact, leading to the same outcome as before.

SGA is also capable of creating a window even when defenders play him a bit tighter, the default look that he (as well as most players) get. He does so, believe it or not, by using a slight bump - initiating contact might not have been on your SGA bingo card.

The ‘bump’ is utilized by Shai in two different scenarios. The first is when he’s driving with a partially committed defender on his hip:

In this scenario, he uses the bump to fully sell his defender on the drive, and a total commitment from the defense means it’s time to, you guessed it, just stop, creating yet another open jumper. The bump isn’t about physically dislodging Shai’s man, or even attempting to - it’s about making the defender feel and react to Shai’s presence.

However, if a defender manages to cut SGA off to some degree, the bump switches functions:

Here, Shai is faced with a defender head-on. He initiates contact, but it’s more of him using his defender as leverage, pushing off his defender and propelling himself backward to create separation that way. SGA knows what he can and cannot do physically, and he plays to his strengths (in this case, a lack of it) by using his lighter frame to his advantage (another small benefit of the bump here is that it helps Shai slam on the breaks while simultaneously making it just a little bit harder for his defender to do the same).

And even if it all breaks down, well, it sure helps to be taller (and longer) than the guy guarding you:

Oh, and just make sure you don’t get too ahead of yourself:

As you may have noticed, all of these clips have Shai coming to a full stop (or something close enough) before hoisting a shot. None of them see him take the traditional two steps. A majority of his attempts this year were like this, which I think is the chief reason for his wild jump in short midrange efficiency. SGA expanded his stop -> pull-up combo to suit more and more in-game scenarios, paving more ways for his soft midrange jumper to torch opposing defenses. It’s a highly effective, versatile weapon that will make the eventual creation of the Shai Gilgeous-Alexander Gameplan a nauseating experience.

When it comes to his moving, off-one-foot (aka, coming his your two steps) attempts, no two shots were alike - they weren’t carefully crafted like his pull-up up jumpers were - they just, happened. This checks out when thinking about SGA’s toolbox as a whole. If he can get just about even with his defender, then his long strides will take him all the way to the rim, meaning that Shai beat his man. If his two steps can’t take him to the rim, then it probably means that there’s a defender somewhere in between, which in turn probably means that Shai doesn’t have much room to put up a shot. That sounds like a bad shot to me. The objective of his wild manipulation of pace is to create horizontal separation between him and his defender, because he damn sure isn’t getting any vertically. So, in my eyes, process plays a part in Shai’s underdeveloped floater.

Anyway, it’s one area in which Shai can get marginally better, alongside finding new ways to lean into his stop -> pull-up sequence even more. Any improvements here, no matter how small, all contribute to pushing that 49.3% even higher.

Rim Finishing

Ok, now we’re getting to the juicy stuff. I’ve already talked about how Shai gets to the rim at a prolific rate, thanks to his tight handle and physical tools that augment it. Here, we’re going to talk about how SGA puts the orange ball in the round basket. But first, context:

(Data via pbpstats. Also, take note that all of this came amid a bad roster with likewise spacing)

The most impressive part about Shai’s rim finishing is the sheer volume. This past season SGA ranked 9th in Restricted Area FGA per game with an impressive 6.4 attempts a night (also, note that only 5 of the names above him are high-usage players, and that all but one are bigs/wings). And per CTG, rim attempts made up a whopping 42% of his shot diet. Save for Zion, Giannis, and Sabonis, no other players in any sort of creation surpassed both of those marks. Finally amongst all players this season (with 400+ minutes), Shai’s Rim ASTD% mark of 7.3% ranks, well, 1st. Oh wait, and then there’s the conversion rate. Per CTG, SGA’s 61% was in the 64th percentile among all players classified as point guards this season. It’s not a great percentage but it’s more than acceptable given the number of times he gets to the rim.

The issue is that, for Shai, the “easy ones” at the rim are far and few between. With lackluster burst both horizontally and vertically, SGA is unable to capitalize on and explode into pockets of space surrendered by the defense. A backline rotation being a tick too late doesn’t really matter because Shai isn’t trying to win a sprint to the rim in the first place (and probably can’t, either). Here, the big being late to the party doesn’t matter because Shai just can’t cover that much ground on short notice like he’s tasked doing with here; the result is a poor shot attempt that would otherwise be a dunk should another player take SGA’s spot here:

In what is both a blessing and a curse, Shai has to carefully craft each and every shot he puts up at the rim (good news: he gets many bites at the apple each game). Every shot SGA attempts at the rim tells a story. So, before we jump into the shots themselves, we need to take look at the physical tools our slithery friend has at his disposal:

Stopping; I think we’ve been over this one before. Length is another, and quite self-explanatory at that. SGA’s long arms allow him to evade contests and put up shots with less separation than what might be ideal. A third trait that has not been discussed is shiftiness. While ‘shiftiness’ is probably over-used and can mean different things to different people, I’ll define ‘shiftiness’ as the ability to shift. Not exactly changing directions; a bit more nuanced. Changing directions on a smaller scale, perhaps. Re-orientating yourself. Whatever words I use to describe this motion, the most important thing to remember is that Shai is more 'shifty’ than his opponents. Check out this clip below that showcases his incredible shiftiness in action:

Few players can pull off what Shai just did without losing their balance or falling short due to some other physical limitation. The play starts with SGA catching the ball against a straight-line Vucevic closeout. He evades this by shifting his driving angle towards the elbow, a vector that Vuc does not interfere with. However, Khem Birch helps at the elbow, forcing Shai to once again shift his body, this time to the right, protecting the ball from Birch, yes, but more importantly shifting his straight-line trajectory so that Birch is no longer in SGA’s way. And finally, as Shai approaches the hoop, he once again shifts his body, this time towards the rim, so that he can actually put up a shot. If you blink in the middle of this clip, then nothing may look out of the ordinary; but that’s what’s so impressive about it. A player who doesn’t move as freely, who couldn’t weave around Birch without dribbling, would never even have sniffed the paint here; their drive would have been snuffed and the offense would move on. Shai exhibits two virtues here - an incredible, versatile range of motion and an understanding of how to use it effectively. Being able to slither to the rim and avoid defenders in this manner is one of the core tools that aides Shai’s finishing.

Another attribute worth bringing up is Shai’s fantastic overall coordination. He can comfortably make right hand layups off his left foot (the most basic/common hand-foot combo), right hand layups off his right foot, left hand layups off his right foot, and left hand layups off his left foot. Being able to finish his steps on either foot and then go up with either hand gives Shai incredible flexibility in choosing when and where to finish.

And the best part about all this is SGA’s incredible self-awareness; Shai plays to his strengths. He knows what he can do and cannot do, and plays basketball accordingly. You won’t see him dunk the ball very often, and nor will you see him attempt a slam, either. Shai knows he can’t dunk the ball in any sort of traffic, so why leave points on the board?

When. When Shai finishes, or plans to finish, is a deep, complicated question that no one really knows the answer to. In fact, I’d argue that Shai’s #1 weapon as a finisher is how he times his attempts at the rim, making sure to put his shot up either before or after his defender (or a helping defender) plans to contest.

While he doesn’t get much hang time in the air, between horizontal leaping and incredible proprioception, SGA usually gets a chance to adjust his shot mid-air. First, check out this two-foot gather he uses to set up a shot with his inside hand:

Now, watch him do the exact same move, but this time, truly adjust himself mid-air:

Yes, this is a so-called ‘double-clutch’ attempt, but Shai did not go in without a plan. He adjusted from one shot to another, using the gather - inside hand shot to draw contests and then switching hands mid-air to open up a window for the shot.

Anyway, back to the either-hand, either-foot thing. That malleability comes in handy in situations like the one below, where SGA ends his drive and shoots it after one step; the help defender, none other than Rudy Gobert, is still loading as the shot goes up, because he expected SGA to put it up after two steps and jumping off his left, not one while jumping off his right:

This is also very effective when Shai is saddled with a defender on his hip. In the play below, Hart’s contest comes too late because SGA puts up the shot before he was expected to:

Shai has other means of throwing off the defense’s timing, beyond altering his two steps:

In the clip above, Shai beats Olynyk off the dribble and heads right into the paint with a full head of steam. In that exact same scenario, 99% of NBA players would take another dribble upon reaching the paint in order to get enough runway for their steps to take them all the way to the rim. If you watch Bam, you’ll see that he barely steps up, as he’s expecting Shai to take that extra dribble and come towards him. But Shai never does. Bam (aka, the rim protector here) never makes a proper contest because he simply can’t figure out when he should go up. By flipping the script on traditional NBA movements patterns, Shai is able to stay ahead of the curve and ensure that he never has to face a contest head-on.

SGA will also try to put up a shot after the contest. In the play below, while he technically ‘double-clutches’, Shai focuses on jumping as far as he can as opposed to as high as he can. The result is his jump functioning as a third step of sorts, with everyone jumping after the assumed two. In fact, if you watch closely, it looks like Shai is making a belated attempt at the invisible box challenge:

Below, SGA flows seamlessly from a live dribble into a scoop shot, doing so with both feet outside the paint:

Now let’s take a look at how Shai’s shiftiness factors into things. As I said before, he’s incredible at planning and executing small little shifts in direction with the objective of getting a clean look at the rim. A more obvious example looks like this:

Whether it’s at the rim or on the way there, the incredible malleability of SGA’s trajectory helps him finagle his way into shots that shouldn’t even be available to him in the first place:

I can’t help myself. I mean, just look at this:

Sometimes he’ll lean into his incredible stopping, decelerating to generate a window at the rim:

Other times, Shai will use his incredible length to go with the reverse while the rest of his body is still on the other side of the hoop. It’s a slippery move that usually catches defenders off-guard, as few players other than SGA can actually pull it off:

(In addition to the scenarios above, his length is helpful in virtually every situation, as his ++ wingspan helps him keep the ball at a safe distance from defenders, evading contests).

This has been touched on a little bit earlier, but for a relatively ground-bound player, SGA’s effective use of mid-air contortions at the rim is surprising:

However, there is a rather large caveat. All of these clips have Shai driving hard towards the rim. That allows him to jump specifically to cover space horizontally as opposed to vertically. That runway gives him enough airtime to adjust his shot, but, more importantly, makes it harder for the contesting defender to adjust his contest to Shai’s new angle, as Shai is cruising by him.

Just as a reminder - if Shai tries any of this stuff going straight-up, it won’t go well. He can barely meet Paul Millsap’s dinosaur at the rim:

And it certainly doesn’t work against a defender with a bit more juice, like Bam:

So, all of these tricks and yet Shai can barely top 60% at the rim? What gives?

Well, athletic limitations do play a role. Shai can’t always dictate the terms of engagement at the rim, and that results in situations where his athletic shortcomings are put in the limelight, when the physical feats asked of him cannot be met. The other main source of misses, or rather, bad shot attempts (everyone misses) is when SGA doesn’t always have his choice of angle. He can get stuck in a position where he’s almost even with the rim (East-West), and outside the restricted area. It makes his go-to scoop layup (that he usually needs in order to avoid contests) very tricky to pull off, as the margin for error with respect to the angle is tiny. It’s why many of these attempts, despite being right at the hoop, don’t touch the rim in the slightest:

‘20-21 Numbers

So, taking a step back from all that lovely, let’s look at what the bottom line production in the scoring department looked like from Shai this year. You’ve been doing a lot of reading, so let’s look at some pictures for a little bit:

So, forced into the primary creator role on a roster that was built to lose games, Shai… thrived. He increased his usage, scoring volume, and scoring efficiency all while taking more shots at the most efficient spots on the court, at the rim and behind the arc. Additionally, he did this all (or, to be exact, 87.1% of this) with no assist from any teammates. I mean, wow. That’s damn good.

Thanks for making it to the end! As always, if you enjoyed the article, a great way to show it would be by giving me a share on Twitter (via a retweet, quote tweet, or whatnot) - a lot of work goes into these and I really appreciate people spreading the word(s)! If you missed out on Part 1 of the series, where I went over Shai’s ballhandling, movement skills, and physical tools, you can read about it here. The same goes for Part 2, which covered Shai’s burgeoning passing/playmaking ability, and is right here. Have a great day!

(The sharing image, via the great @nba_paint)